How the Condo Market Broke Its Seasonal Pattern
Key Takeaways:
- The Manhattan condo market typically peaks in spring and early fall and slows in summer due to school breaks and major holidays.
- In 2024, this pattern reversed, with the highest number of signed contracts occurring in the fourth quarter.
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The Condo Market Seasonal Average
I’ve been following the Manhattan condo market since 2008, and it has run like clockwork for most of that time. Activity builds gradually through the winter and early spring, with signed contracts typically peaking in March.
This aligns with a period when many families are actively planning their moves before the school year ends. However, momentum sharply declines in the summer, with noticeable dips in July and August. These slowdowns coincide with major holidays like Memorial Day, July Fourth, and Labor Day, when affluent families are often away, vacationing in places like Cape Cod, the Hamptons, Europe, or Asia.
The market enters a temporary lull with children out of school, and many buyers are focused on leisure rather than logistics. Only after the school year resumes in early September and families settle back into their routines does activity rebound, typically reaching a second peak in October. This school-aligned and holiday-sensitive cadence has defined the rhythm of Manhattan’s condo market for nearly two decades.
The Reversal
In 2024, the condo market in Manhattan did not follow its usual seasonal rhythm. The first half of the year traditionally sees the highest activity level, with contract signings building from late winter and peaking in May. But last year, the pattern inverted.
The first half recorded 2,330 signed contracts, while the second half nearly matched it with 2,316. The fourth quarter alone produced 1,206 signed contracts, making it the year’s strongest quarter. Buyers who typically transact in the spring shifted their activity to the later months, concentrating demand in the fall and early winter. This reversal marked a significant departure from the long-established patterns of the Manhattan condo market.